The China-Global South Project

The West talks about a critical minerals race. The numbers suggest something different. China dominates processing across rare earths, graphite, lithium, cobalt, and more. What does that mean for America’s strategy?

Can Brazil Become China’s Export Hub for South America?

Corporate clients in Panama Canal are increasingly asking how to navigate U.S.-China competition, critical infrastructure risks, and growing scrutiny of Chinese-linked investments. Watch - tinyurl.com/3d7sxs8w

China spent decades building an entire ecosystem around critical minerals. The U.S. is trying to catch up through deals. Is it too late? 🎧 New episode out now - tinyurl.com/bdf8c2xk

The U.S. is signing critical mineral deals around the world. China has already built the mines, refineries, infrastructure, and workforce. So, is this a real competition, or is Washington decades behind? New episode out now - tinyurl.com/bdf8c2xk

Why Chinese Carmakers Are Rushing Into Brazil

A Peking University professor predicted that the Iran war would boost China’s clean tech exports. Three months later, the data appear to support him: Chinese EVs, solar panels, and batteries are seeing strong global demand.

Chinese state-owned firms still play a major role in Brazil, but private companies are now expanding fast, especially in autos, tech, and services.

Why China Is Betting Big on Brazil’s Energy Sector

🧵China’s Brazil Boom China is facing pushback across Latin America, but not in Brazil. Tulio Cariello joins Eric to explain why Chinese FDI into Brazil is surging. Watch - tinyurl.com/mp3chp7s

How Do Countries Industrialize When China Remains Dominant Even in Lower-End Manufacturing?

The war with Iran is disrupting global energy markets and accelerating demand for China’s clean energy technologies across the Global South. Li Shuo joins Eric & Cobus to explain why China may be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Watch - tinyurl.com/metfurf6

Data centers and critical minerals refining are often promoted as pathways to industrial upgrading. But both require large amounts of reliable electricity, water, and infrastructure. For fragile economies, the opportunity cost is becoming harder to ignore.

China is facing pushback across Latin America but not in Brazil. Tulio Cariello joins Eric to explain what is driving this boom, and whether U.S. pressure can slow it down. Watch - tinyurl.com/mp3chp7s

Does China actually want America’s global role? Jeremy Friedman argues Beijing wants influence, but not necessarily the full burden of global leadership. Watch - tinyurl.com/4ydabreu

Why a Prolonged Iran War Is Bad News for China The longer the war continues, the harder it becomes for China to stay insulated. Rising energy prices, fuel rationing in nearby economies, and disrupted supply chains could eventually hit China's interests.

China and the War in Iran Washington assumes China can pressure Iran because it buys most of its oil. But is China really willing or able to force Iran into major security concessions? William Figueroa joins Eric to discuss the limits of China’s leverage. Watch - tinyurl.com/bdzndztt

Panama is now caught in the middle of a growing U.S.-China clash over control of strategic canal ports. Pedro Armada joins Eric to explain why Beijing’s pressure campaign may be escalating and why Panama’s options are narrowing. Watch - tinyurl.com/3d7sxs8w

Panama is now caught in the middle of a growing U.S.-China clash over control of strategic canal ports. Pedro Armada joins Eric to explain why Beijing’s pressure campaign may be escalating and why Panama’s options are narrowing. Watch - tinyurl.com/3d7sxs8w

A new middle-power coalition sounds appealing. But according to Sarang Shidore, the reality is much more complicated: North-South divides, competing priorities, and different threat perceptions may keep these countries apart. Watch - tinyurl.com/4x9wpnxf

Vietnam-China Ties Khang Vu argues that to understand Vietnam's strategy, you have to compare what Vietnam is signing with Beijing, Seoul, Washington, and others. Watch - tinyurl.com/yjvprnxm

Africa’s rail corridors are no longer just infrastructure projects. They are becoming strategic assets in the global competition over minerals, supply chains, and access to markets. Watch: tinyurl.com/uvf42bt9

From Egypt to Southeast Asia, energy importers want out of volatile fossil fuel markets. Tim McDonnell explains how China’s batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, and critical minerals are giving Beijing new leverage after the Iran war. Watch - tinyurl.com/mrxzdxnb

Africa’s critical minerals race is no longer just about mines; it’s about the railways, ports, and trade routes that move them to market. Paul Nantulya explains how global powers are racing to secure Africa’s mineral supply chains. Watch: tinyurl.com/uvf42bt9

Is China’s Energy Strategy Built for This Moment? As the Strait of Hormuz crisis disrupts global energy flows, countries are rethinking energy security. @timmcdonnell joins Eric to discuss how China is winning the global energy war. Watch - tinyurl.com/mrxzdxnb

Mozambique Is Playing the Great Powers Smartly Mozambique is showing what African agency looks like in practice: securing U.S. financing, working with Chinese contractors, engaging European firms, and refusing to be boxed into one camp. Watch - tinyurl.com/2d34un9f

The Bureaucratic Politics Behind Development Finance

Was This Congo Deal About Mining? A U.S. company won a major mining deal in Congo, beating out a Chinese bidder that reportedly offered better financial terms. Now, questions are being raised about whether the firm actually has the mining experience to deliver.

Chinese development finance in Africa is often framed as an outlier: faster, more demand-driven, and less concerned with governance, corruption, environmental impact, or human rights conditions than traditional lenders. But research by Keyi Tang offers a more nuanced picture.

Do you think China needed to pressure African countries here or were these decisions already aligned with their own interests? More broadly, is Africa being underestimated in global geopolitics? Watch - tinyurl.com/3w5v5eu8

Two districts need roads. One is poor, isolated, and needs a road to connect farmers to the market. The other is politically pivotal in the next election. Which one gets the road? That question reveals the politics behind development finance in Africa.

The Politics Behind Taiwan’s Failed Africa Visit. Was China Involved? This week, a diplomatic trip to Eswatini turned into a global controversy after multiple African states reportedly denied overflight access. Watch - tinyurl.com/3w5v5eu8

Development finance is supposed to go where it’s needed most. But what if politics decides who gets the roads, schools, and hospitals instead? New conversation with Keyi Tang on politics, debt, and development finance in Africa. Watch - tinyurl.com/2vxdbe7v

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar from April 22 to 26, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Tuesday. In Cambodia, Wang and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun will hold strategic talks with local officials.

Africa’s Tech Ecosystem: China Builds the Infrastructure, America Owns the Apps

What does digital sovereignty actually mean in practice? Bulelani Jili uses Kenya’s push to build technical skills as a lens to explore how African states navigate power, dependence, and control in a global tech system heavily shaped by outside actors.

In our latest podcast, we discuss the mood in policy and think tank circles in Washington, the strategic implications of China’s engagements, and why many African countries are placing less emphasis on ties with the U.S. as they pursue other economic and development partnerships.

Developing Nations Should Avoid Choosing Between China and the U.S. Jorge Heine explains active non-alignment and why Global South nations should avoid choosing sides in the U.S.-China rivalry.

Latin America is now the frontline of U.S.–China rivalry. Jorge Heine joins us to discuss why this competition is accelerating, whether countries can stay neutral, or will they be forced to choose? Watch - tinyurl.com/3znvw96a

China as a Banker, Debt Collector, and Rescuer in Africa. Yan Liang joins Eric Olander to examine China’s evolving role as a development finance provider in Africa. Watch the full episode: tinyurl.com/2c2rvee5

Gen Z faces global frustration over jobs, inequality, and economic prospects. While youth discontent exists in China, the U.S., and elsewhere, political influence varies greatly across countries and contexts.

The West wants to break its dependence on China for EV batteries and critical minerals. But China’s lead may already be too big to close. Zeyi Yang joins us to discuss China's dominance. Watch - tinyurl.com/3yd8hpxc

Is China Replacing U.S. Aid in Africa? Not Exactly. Washington is shifting toward trade and strategic deals, while China says its engagement has always focused on infrastructure and development finance. Obert Hodzi and Santino Regilme join us to explain the difference.

Many critics say China is an unreliable ally because it won’t defend countries like Iran or Venezuela. But what if the real issue is that China doesn’t believe in alliances the way the United States does? Watch the discussion - tinyurl.com/5e88p95f

China has launched a series of global initiatives alongside existing institutions, which some see as building a parallel system, trying to replace the Western-led global order. But Joel Ng argues something different. Watch the discussion - tinyurl.com/mrxkfspy

Why didn’t China intervene to defend partners like Iran or Venezuela? Eric Olander and Andrea Ghiselli explain. Full Analysis - tinyurl.com/4amc5ver

China's Strategy for Iran’s New Leadership Andrea Ghiselli breaks down how Beijing typically navigates political transitions abroad and why pragmatism, not ideology, will likely guide China’s next move. Full Analysis - tinyurl.com/4amc5ver

When Transsion Holdings entered Africa, Chinese phones had a reputation problem. Local distributors helped change that. They acted as “translators”, adapting a Chinese business model to African markets.

The Strategy Behind Transsion Holdings’ Rise: “De-Plowing” Strategy What is the “De-Plowing” Strategy?

Most people explain the success of Transsion Holdings in Africa by pointing to affordable prices and features tailored for local consumers. But the real story runs much deeper.

The world is scrambling for lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. Nicolas Niarchos joins Eric Olander & Christian Geraud to discuss how the scramble to control these metals and their production is overturning the world order. Full Analysis - tinyurl.com/4k3ajz5h

From Oil to Compute: The Gulf’s AI Pivot.

The U.S. as a Resident Power in the Gulf. From military buildup to direct operations, the U.S. is operating as a resident power, shaping events on the ground.

U.S. and China Take Divergent Paths in the New West Asia. We recently hosted Mohammed Soliman to discuss his new book, West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East. Full analysis: tinyurl.com/3r496vcc 🧵 Here are the key highlights from the episode:

While Apple and Samsung chased premium markets, one Chinese company focused on Africa. Today, Transsion Holdings is the world’s 5th-largest smartphone maker. Lu Miao joined us to break down the strategy behind Transsion's success in Africa. 📹- tinyurl.com/3jju9yex

Can the U.S. realistically displace China from Latin America, or is Beijing already too economically embedded? Pedro Armada joins Eric to unpack the fallout from the removal of CK Hutchison Holdings and what it signals for the region.

As the U.S. seeks to reduce its reliance on Chinese-dominated mineral supply chains, Africa has emerged as a central battleground. Yinka Adegoke and Andrew Browne, editors from SEMAFOR, joined us to discuss how Africa has become a key front in the U.S.-China rivalry.

The China-critical minerals race is reshaping Washington’s development finance strategy. But is the focus becoming too narrow? Full Analysis: tinyurl.com/y738h62e

Is Beijing Worried About Being Locked Out of Africa’s Minerals? How is China reacting to mineral alliances that sideline it in Africa? Geraud looks at Beijing’s rhetoric, risk calculus and concerns.

What Is China’s Global Security Initiative? China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) is often presented as a new framework for international security cooperation, but is it really new? Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah breaks down the strategy.

China is rapidly expanding its military engagement across Africa through joint exercises, growing arms sales, and training programs. Paul Nantulya and Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah join Eric & Geraud to explain why Chinese security outreach is getting so much traction across Africa.

US and China Take Divergent Paths in the New West Asia In the latest China-Global South podcast episode, Mohammed Soliman joins Eric to discuss how the United States and China are pursuing different strategies in West Asia. Full Analysis: tinyurl.com/3r496vcc

South Asia’s real crisis isn’t just great-power rivalry, it’s regional dysfunction.

On the other hand, China’s state firms still build major projects abroad, but they’re investing less than before. Here is an explanation of why there is a shift in China’s state-led overseas investment.

Today, private Chinese firms, particularly in green tech and battery manufacturing, are technological leaders that host countries try to attract. Christoph Nedopil explains how private Chinese firms are now driving global expansion.

When investing abroad, especially in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries, Chinese firms can build factories and scale production at remarkable speed. But what happens when conditions change?

Is Trying to Outspend China’s BRI a Strategic Mistake? Quincy Institute researchers Karthik Sankaran and Dan Ford argue that competing directly with China misses the point of development finance, and could undermine U.S. effectiveness in the Global South.

South Asia’s foreign policy choices aren’t always about national interest. They’re shaped by elite politics, partition trauma, and emotional baggage, especially when balancing India and China. Mandakini D. Surie explains ⬇️

Africa, Critical Minerals, and America’s China Dilemma A new U.S.-led critical minerals alliance is taking shape, but China still dominates refining and processing. C.Géraud Neema joins Eric & Cobus to unpack the proposal and whether it can realistically succeed.

China’s 2019 debt sustainability guidelines, combined with rising sovereign debt risks in the Global South, reshaped BRI investment decisions and shifted risk onto construction firms themselves.

The Business Logic Behind China’s Fossil Fuel Projects.

Christoph Nedopil explains why oil and gas dominated BRI energy investments, why renewables still hit record levels, and how this created the “dirtiest and greenest” year in BRI history.

Is China responding to a more disruptive U.S. foreign policy under Trump or is the timing just coincidence?

The BRI Was Supposed to Slow Down. Instead, 2025 delivered record-breaking engagement. Christoph Nedopil, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, joins Eric to review the 2025 BRI data and explain what drove a record year of BRI engagement worldwide. Watch - tinyurl.com/29fycvev

New data challenges the idea that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is collapsing. Christoph Nedopil joins Eric to review the 2025 BRI data and explain what drove a record year of BRI engagement worldwide. Watch - tinyurl.com/29fycvev

Small South Asian States & Strategic Hedging How are smaller countries adapting to a multipolar world? Eric speaks with Sagar Prasai and Mandakini D. Surie on shifting strategies, great-power competition, and China’s growing influence. Watch - tinyurl.com/33aywhet

Why Military Escalation Works Against Beijing’s Interests. China's response tools have been diplomatic and economic by design, not military. William Figuerora explains why Beijing staying on the sidelines is a calculated choice, not a failure. Watch: tinyurl.com/dca5tnjz

The U.S. strategic dialogue on Africa has become overwhelmingly focused on securing critical minerals. Judd Devermont breaks down Washington’s tunnel vision and the internal conflict within the U.S. foreign policy ecosystem. Watch the Full Analysis - tinyurl.com/bdf62h5e

When Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared that the rules-based international order no longer works, he spoke repeatedly about “great powers” without naming any. So who was the speech really aimed at?

Africa is entering a new geopolitical phase. From visa restrictions and trade sanctions to shifting diplomacy, Washington’s posture toward Africa is hardening. Judd Devermont joins us to unpack what this means for Africa, U.S.–Africa relations, and China–Africa ties. tinyurl.com/bdf62h5e

How Washington Misread Xi Jinping Jane Perlez reflects on how Washington fundamentally misjudged Xi Jinping when he first emerged as China’s next leader and how Xi's leadership personality reshaped the trajectory of U.S.–China relations.

China has shown it can act decisively on wildlife protection, most notably with its 2017 ivory ban. But as the rosewood trade accelerates across West Africa, experts warn that time is running out. Can Beijing apply the same pressure internationally?

The China Coverage Collapse With fewer American correspondents on the ground, Western understanding of China’s political and social realities is narrowing, at a moment when informed analysis is most needed.

China and the United States are increasingly practicing similar foreign policy playbooks: assertive in their own neighborhoods, restrained elsewhere. What does China’s actual engagement with Iran look like in practice?

In our latest episode, we examine what the end of the U.S.-led international order could mean for China’s ambitions, global governance, and the future of great-power competition, with Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

China spoke out on Venezuela, but remained silent on Iran. Why? China–Iran scholar William Figuerora explains Beijing’s strategy. Watch: tinyurl.com/dca5tnjz