Shel Winkley

🔴 SPAIN MARINE HEATWAVE: 12 of 15 deep-water buoys & 6/14 coastal buoys recorded their highest-ever May temperatures. @climatecentral.org's Climate Shift Index shows this record ocean heat was made at least 50x more likely by human-caused warming -- especially by month's end. 🌊/1

Isolated flood concerns continue across parts of Texas today (Saturday) as a sluggish weather maker spins over the west side of the state. Tropical downpours aren't unique for this time of the year...but there's a piece of this puzzle that is... 🧵1/2 #txwx

🚨💧IT'S A PWAT POST💧🚨 (The Gulf air is JUICY...and climate change is making it just a little...more...t h i c k.) Grab a raincoat. Let's chat ⤵️

This rich, deep, tropical moisture will get the ketchup bottle squeeze into Texas & Louisiana by late week & this weekend. The squeezers? ➡️High pressure slipping dry air down the East Coast ⬅️Low pressure, rain-maker swinging in from the west

A mess of rain & thunderstorms is covering the Gulf of Mexico this morning. The environment is BIG-time sheared- so tropical development is NOT expected. BUT...the pattern over the US later this week is what makes it interesting for the Western Gulf Coast 🧵/1

...and away we go. June 1 marks the first official day of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. El Niño has taken the top headline this year. But don't sleep on those warm ocean temps lurking under the surface Here's how our warming atmosphere could shape storms this season 👇

About 5 and a half inches in the tank so far this May at Easterwood Airport. Next chance at a drink of water comes rumbling into the Brazos Valley late this evening & overnight. Isolated wind gusts 40mph+ not ruled out with this round. Early Tuesday forecast for what radar could look like ⤵️

UK friends... You Ok?! 🥵♨️

Forecast: @noaa.gov Weather Prediction Center (WPC) paints the opportunity of 5" to 6" of rain over the Brazos Valley between now (Sunday) and the start of Memorial Day Weekend. While helpful to continue erasing #drought across the area, localized flooding will be a concern at times. #bcstx #txwx

Wave (albeit light) of Saharan Dust could reach the Gulf of Mexico & then Southeast / Central Texas by late weekend / early next week. No air quality impacts anticipated -- although there might be a bit of a haze/slight milky look to our Brazos Valley & Houston skies #txwx

Heat records in May. @climatecentral.org's Climate Shift Index is maxed out... Quick chat about our recent record heat ⤵️

BRAZOS VALLEY: Scattered storms -- a few potentially strong/severe -- possible ahead of our late evening/overnight line. ⏰Scattered Storms: 6pm - 10pm | Line of storms: 10pm - 1am | Lingering rain through 3-5am Forecast for what radar could look like ⤵️

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🏜️TEXAS #DROUGHT UPDATE: Last week's soaking rain chiseled away at drought conditions across much of the Lone Star State. ⬅️Last Week: 75% of the state in some sort of drought ➡️This Week: 69% Brazos Valley dropped a category from Severe(D2) to Moderate(D1) Drought #txwx

Our feathered friends are essential. They spread seeds, pollinate plants, & keep insect populations in check. When their timing breaks down, they may arrive before their food sources are ready...or miss that window entirely. That impacts baby birds hatching each year, too.

Friday weather in the Brazos Valley. Drippy. Soggy. Wet. Rumbly. Overall severe threat is low...ponding of water/low-lying flooding, gusty wind, brief (sub-severe) small hail not ruled out with strongest storms here and there #bcstx #txwx

8pm Radar: Mean pair of textbook supercells tumbling out of North Texas this evening. Baseball size hail, 60+ mph wind, and the potential for a tornado continue with this southbound complex.

WEDNESDAY: The *entire* Brazos Valley has been placed under a 1 out of 5 risk for isolated strong/severe storms. ⚠️Wind gusts 40mph+, heavy rain, small hail This is likely to be a midday → afternoon event. Latest version for what radar could look like (as of Tuesday AM) ⤵️

May get a bit noisy around the Brazos Valley on WEDNESDAY. ⚠️Strong wind gusts & quick heavy rain with isolated 1"+ totals in a short amount of time This isn't locked in just yet, but it will be a morning to keep an eye on. Latest forecast radar as of Monday evening ⤵️ #txwx

Yep. It's severe season...⛈️ ... but there's something feeding this latest round that is not quite normal for late April. Let's make the connection 🔴⤵️

😷You don't have to be near the flames of the Pineland Road fire to experience impacts... Thursday: Smoke spreads across much of Georgia, reducing air quality statewide. Friday: A wind shift pushes hazy skies into eastern Georgia & South Carolina. 🧵/7

9:50am Radar: Tricky day to nail down timing, intensity, and coverage of rain/storms across the Brazos Valley & #bcstx. What is worth watching? This cluster of storms southwest of the area. If we're going to unzip the sky today, this will be one of the keys that does it

⛈️Active weather pattern on deck for the middle of the country. Storm Prediction Center's outlook Thursday (4/9) ➡️ Wednesday (4/15). Daily rounds of storms and severe potential outlined from Texas, the Central Plains, to the Midwest & Great Lakes

Western U.S. warmth that just...won't...stop... 🌡️Morning & afternoon temps running 15° - 20° ABOVE average. Top 10 daily records possible for many locations. 🔴Persistent spring warmth that is now more likely in a warming world