Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers
@platypuseconomics
"The big story right now is oil. The next story is food." That's the transmission channel people miss: if fertilizer is "caught on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz," food prices can be next.
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"You can't say the cost of a puppy is $200 because that was the adoption fee." The Pentagon's $25B price tag does exactly that — it ignores veterans' care, disability payments, and decades of interest. The true cost of war shows up long after the fighting stops.
Opportunity cost is Econ 101 with real stakes: the cost of a choice is not just dollars spent, but what you gave up. For war, that means not only destruction, but all the prosperity that never gets a chance to exist.
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Why oil? Because worsening war news tends to threaten energy supply. That pushes oil prices up. So rising oil isn’t just about petrol; it’s a signal about geopolitical risk hitting the global economy.
A gas tax holiday talks about 18.4¢ while ignoring the $1.50 problem. That's politics, not policy. And half of it likely goes straight to oil company profits. Congress knows this. Some just hope you don't.
$42 million raised sounds enormous. It is. But economics is about compared with what? If the Met Gala creates far more value for fashion brands than for the museum, then the ticket price is probably too low.
“He failed to understand the interconnectedness of the world economy.” That was true in the trade war, and it’s true now.
Think of an oil shock like a stone tossed in a pond. First splash: gasoline. Then the ripples: airfares, delivery costs, packaging, groceries, construction materials. The ripples are real. Just give them a moment to spread.
Kevin Warsh once argued for rates that were too high for the economy, and he now seems politically reluctant to contradict Trump. That's a worrying combo. We'll find out soon enough which one shows up to work.
Right now, the AI boom mostly shows up as investment: chips, data centers, infrastructure. The real question is whether those foundations eventually help workers and firms do more with less.
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probably too busy counting other people‘s money to concentrate on something as silly as his actual job
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