Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers
@platypuseconomics
"If we don't have immigration and population growth, the number of people who can pay off that debt just went down." That's the key mechanism.
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The lesson here isn’t just about phones in schools. It’s about human behavior: Take something away, and people usually replace it with something else. Economists call this substitution.
Lemme ’splain: calling it a “big beautiful bill” doesn’t make the maths prettier. If you cut taxes and don’t cut spending, the deficit goes up. That’s not ideology. That’s just arithmetic wearing sensible shoes.
Even if Middle East tensions ease, futures markets are signaling oil prices will stay elevated for months — maybe years. That's the "Iran tax." And it's not going away anytime soon, regardless of what the White House says about prices coming down.
Here’s the thing: debt isn’t exploding tomorrow, but the trajectory matters. If you enter the next war, recession, or pandemic already heavily indebted, you have less room to respond when you actually need it.
Two things can be true at once: the U.S. is more energy independent than in the 1970s, and an energy shock can still raise inflation. Independence isn’t immunity.
Kids often pick up on something economists downplay: people care not just about prosperity, but about whether technologies like AI are changing the world in ways that no longer feel predictable or secure.
A windfall profits tax sounds great as a one-off. But once investors expect it to happen again, it's no longer a windfall tax—it's just a profits tax. And that can discourage the investment you actually want.
Economists call this diminishing marginal utility. The first dollars change your life. The billionth doesn't. So the argument stops being about consumption and starts being about power.
Why oil? Because worsening war news tends to threaten energy supply. That pushes oil prices up. So rising oil isn’t just about petrol; it’s a signal about geopolitical risk hitting the global economy.
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📺 Se confirma el tercer strike después de la revisión del sistema de repeticiones instantáneas.
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