Trita Parsi
@tparsi
Told @BeckyCNN that Trump's escalation appears driven by frustration that his blockade has failed, but if he truly brings US naval ships into the Persian Gulf, he will give Iran more targets and risk US casualties in a manner that he had managed to avoid during the war itself.
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Joe Kent goes to the heart of the matter: Without addressing America's imbalanced relationship with Israel, the current war won't end and a deal with Tehran cannot be found. "The main issue is that the Israelis are out of control, and they are driving this entire war."
In this extremely sensitive stage of the talks, the last thing needed - beyond the exchange of fire - is rhetoric that pours more fuel on the fire. During the campaign, Trump showed great message discipline on Iran; that's what he needs to do now, instead of the below:
Both Trump and Iran need a deal. Even short of war, the ceasefire is putting too much pressure on the US economy and the GOP's political prospects. And Iran needs to translate the outcome of the war into much-needed sanctions relief. Both will lose if a deal is missed.
Trump had time on his side during the ceasefire - until he imposed the blockade per the recommendation of FDD, Israel, and Lindsey Graham. Though the blockade is hurting Iran, it has ended up hurting Trump more, with oil prices now exceeding where they were even during the war itself.
Joe Kent last night: "We need to let our leaders hear that we do not support this war [with Iran], we do not think there is a vital national security interest, we want to bring our troops home, we do not want 20 plus years of blood letting."
Perhaps the most important thing @joekent16jan19 told @TuckerCarlson is that the deal to end the war will necessitate some sanctions relief for Tehran - and that it lies in the US's economic interest to lift sanctions:
An entirely new security equation will be needed after this war. Won't be easy. GCC dependency on the US is partly why they're in this dire situation. Finding a new relationship with Iran will be difficult, given Iran's attacks. But there is no other way: geography is permanent.
I explained on @cnn that Lebanon may be the real sticking point, since Iran demands Israel end the bombardment of that country. βFor the Iranians, this is a test to see whether the United States is capable of controlling and reining in Israel.β
To say that Trump underestimated Iran is an understatement. The Israelis sold him - and he ended up believing - a narrative that portrayed Iran as so weak that the war would be won within 4 days. 60 plus days later, Trump is still stuck in the mess Israel sold him.
Trump: "He [Saudi Arabia's MBS] didn't think he'd be kissing my ass... But now he has to be nice to me." This is the choice the GCC will face post-war. If it moves toward deeper dependence on the US to balance Iran, they'll become spineless vassals similar to Europe, who have to "kiss Trump's ass."
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