Trita Parsi
@tparsi
Trump cannot escalate his war out of this war because Iran can inflict costly counterescalation. If Iran destroys the regional oil infrastructure, oil prices will shoot through the roof in an enduring way and cause global economic depression. The only way out is de-escalatory.
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Both Trump and Iran need a deal. Even short of war, the ceasefire is putting too much pressure on the US economy and the GOP's political prospects. And Iran needs to translate the outcome of the war into much-needed sanctions relief. Both will lose if a deal is missed.
Important: The threat of American military force has lost its potency in the US-Iran equation. This fundamentally changes the dynamics between the US and Iran. The US can no longer approach diplomacy as a matter of dictating terms - it has to be real give and take
Told @chrislhayes that while the GCCC states are infuriated with Iran, their reliance on the American security umbrella has not granted them security, but rather made them the targets. As a result, after this war, they will likely rethink their complete reliance on the US.
Told @BeckyCNN that Trump's escalation appears driven by frustration that his blockade has failed, but if he truly brings US naval ships into the Persian Gulf, he will give Iran more targets and risk US casualties in a manner that he had managed to avoid during the war itself.
Why sanctions relief is an essential part from Tehran's standpoint that helps ensure that the war truly ends and that Iran doesn't get attacked again in 6-8 months. It's what gives a non-aggression pact a degree of credibility. I suspect this will be non-negotiable for Tehran.
An entirely new security equation will be needed after this war. Won't be easy. GCC dependency on the US is partly why they're in this dire situation. Finding a new relationship with Iran will be difficult, given Iran's attacks. But there is no other way: geography is permanent.
There is still an off-ramp available to Trump, but it will require a compromise, including sanctions relief for Iran. There are ways Trump can do this that will serve US interest. But if he goes in with ground troops, the opportunity will likely be lost.
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