Trita Parsi
@tparsi
Told @AJEnglish that the Israelis are driving this war right now, and Trump must retake control of it because Israel's interest diverges from that of the US. Israel wants to prolong the war to degrade Iran's industrial base - regardless of the cost to the global economy.
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Told @aje that Trump's declaration that there has already been regime change in Iran is indicative of his desperation to create a narrative of victory to exit this disastrous war.
.@AJEnglish asked me if Trump could have achieved the same outcome without war. What the war did, in my view, was that the US came to realize that war does not work and, as a result, the US needed a deal that ensured long-term peace. That's the impact of having tried war.
To say that Trump underestimated Iran is an understatement. The Israelis sold him - and he ended up believing - a narrative that portrayed Iran as so weak that the war would be won within 4 days. 60 plus days later, Trump is still stuck in the mess Israel sold him.
This is heartbreaking. In play, children reenact what they see in order to make sense of it and feel a degree of control. In Gaza, little girls play "funeral" with their doll playing the role of a friend who has been killed.
Told @esaagar and @krystalball that Tehran may commit the same mistake as the US, overplay their hand, and seek Trump's humiliation. That would be a huge mistake. Both sides need to be able to put forward a credible narrative of victory in order to end this senseless war.
An entirely new security equation will be needed after this war. Won't be easy. GCC dependency on the US is partly why they're in this dire situation. Finding a new relationship with Iran will be difficult, given Iran's attacks. But there is no other way: geography is permanent.
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Told @BBCWorld that a key sign that the US and Iran are close to a deal is that the Trump admin has spent the last 48h defending a potential deal. They wouldn't be spending any political capital defending a yet-to-be-secured deal if they didn't believe they were close.
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