Jack Bailey
@jack-bailey.co.uk
🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 20 May 2026 28% ➡️ Reform 19% 🌹 Labour 18% 🌳 Conservative 14% 🍃 Green 12% 🐥 Lib Dem 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP
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More from Jack Bailey
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A cool thing about the effective number of parties is that you can compute it using a simple physics simulation. As particles collide, the ratio of *all collisions* to *collisions...
22 2 00:15 -
Finally got my hands on a Galton board and I can't get over just how cool it is. And it's *such* a good teaching tool too. You could use it to teach anything from generative modell...
18 1 00:04 -
It turns out that elections are really triangles. Who knew? jack-bailey.co.uk/writing/elec...
14 2 00:08 -
In 2024, 744 parties competed in the Indian general election, 10 times as many as in the UK. Yet we describe both as 2-party systems. Why? My new post explains how to count like a...
9 00:11 -
I've decided to keep an 'open notebook' where I publish the research notes that I make on my website. I won't post them all here, but I think the first one is interesting. Simply...
7 00:14
In 2024, 744 parties competed in the Indian general election, 10 times as many as in the UK. Yet we describe both as 2-party systems. Why? My new post explains how to count like a political scientist: using the *effective* number of parties. jack-bailey.co.uk/blog/what-is...
🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 23 May 2026 28% ➡️ Reform 19% 🌹 Labour 18% 🌳 Conservative 13% 🍃 Green 12% 🐥 Lib Dem 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP
A cool thing about the effective number of parties is that you can compute it using a simple physics simulation. As particles collide, the ratio of *all collisions* to *collisions of the same colour* converges on the effective number of parties.
I've decided to keep an 'open notebook' where I publish the research notes that I make on my website. I won't post them all here, but I think the first one is interesting. Simply put: party-system fragmentation isn't one thing, it's *two*. jack-bailey.co.uk/notes/fragme...
🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 31 May 2026 27% ➡️ Reform 20% 🌹 Labour 19% 🌳 Conservative 13% 🍃 Green 12% 🐥 Lib Dem 5% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP
Finally got my hands on a Galton board and I can't get over just how cool it is. And it's *such* a good teaching tool too. You could use it to teach anything from generative modelling, to distributional assumptions, to entropy. Magical!
🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 24 May 2026 27% ➡️ Reform 19% 🌹 Labour 18% 🌳 Conservative 13% 🍃 Green 12% 🐥 Lib Dem 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP
If the UK had used MMP -- like Germany, New Zealand, or Scotland -- every party in Great Britain would have won more seats except for the Labour Party. jack-bailey.co.uk/writing/just...
It turns out that elections are really triangles. Who knew? jack-bailey.co.uk/writing/elec...
@jolandaneff #Tissot #TTouch #sportswatch #SwissWatch #Active #Lifestyle #Since1853 @tissot_official #ad 🎥 @kahncreative
Northside Home Care Services workers were outside the Dáil yesterday (and out in Coolock today) with their union the IWU to fight for their basic entitlements to pay parity. Have a listen to Sonya explain why they're there, and why they'll keep fighting. #FightForYourRights #JoinAUnion
CORE Rules! ChimeraSHOCK! TTRPG in a world of Steam Engines, Bi-Planes, Airships, Black Powder, Super Science, Swords, and Majhic... Evolution on each world like ours doesn't happen all at once. Technology doesn't propagate at an equal rate. Cultures collide. #dnd #steampunk
Rep. Melanie Stansbury : The Epstein cover-up by the White House and DOJ continues now,Trump is targeting members of his own party who have supported survivors and the release of the files Clearly, they don’t want whatever they’re hiding to come out—and they’re going after those who get in the way
Vets protested in the Capitol Rotunda today from #VetsAboutFace Many were disabled Vets #WeDemandAnImmediateEnd #ToTheWarInIran #WeCantAffordAnotherWar There were about 150 They were eventually handcuffed & removed For their #CivilDisobedience
De harde realiteit waar jongeren dagelijks geconfronteerd worden, mag u van de socialistische Vlaamse parlementsvoorzitter niet zien. Allochtoontuig dat Vlaamse jongens en meisjes belaagt, is geen uitzondering meer. Enkel het Vlaams Belang toont u de werkelijkheid én wil een keiharde aanpak.
On the latest episode of the Science of Slink #polepodcast, we're joined by non-diet personal trainer Àngel Casas to talk health at any size, letting go of shame and taking control of your movement life. Listen now! pod.link/1691190004
Administrator Carter’s first week was a busy one, meeting with dept directors and speaking at the premiere of The Office of Commissioner Rodney Ellis's "Investing in Hope" ARPA documentary, while OCA’s Sustainability and Justice Innovation teams shared their expertise as conference panelists.
🚨The Army agrees: our WARRIOR Act will make America’s military stronger and our country safer by ensuring that our servicemembers are judged on the merits — not their gender.
New episode of Let’s Address This: Zahid and Melissa Chaudhry share how Zahid, a U.S. Army veteran, was unlawfully detained by ICE during his citizenship appointment. Watch our full interview: www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGKV...
Nobody successful is doing this alone. Social media is lying to you. The people trying to copy “self-made” narratives are the brokest ones. Tune in: https://youtube.com/live/-zVFpma6U3g?feature=share #theuntraditionalentrepreneur #teamwins #businessfacts #entrepreneurfocus
🚨 Cúilín Media - Podcast Clip! 🚨 The lads discuss Westmeath’s historic Leinster Title win yesterday in Croke Park 🏆 Cúilín Media Championship Coverage 2026 is partnered by ATAK Sports 🤝 Full Pod available on YouTube & Spotify 🎧
🚨 Cúilín Media - Podcast Clip! 🚨 In this one, the lads discuss Kilkerrin Clonberne winning their fifth All-Ireland Title in a row 🏆 One of the greatest dynasties of all time 👑 Full Pod available on YouTube & Spotify 🔥 #LGFA @ladiesfootball.bsky.social
Stop, Parents! You are NOT failing, here's the reality! Access Full Guide: https://go.growdeen.com/positive_behaviour_environment You're not aiming for zero struggles. You're building conditions where cooperation becomes easier. #fyp #Islam
Budget 2026 predicts a $9.4B deficit, confirming Alberta’s spending problem. The #UCP government has far overspent its budget projections every year that Danielle Smith has been premier. Her government needs to find $6.9B in cuts to balance the budget by 2028/29. #ABgov #ABpoli #deficit #debt
#HappyBirthday to fellow wonderful friend/Super #Svengoolie SvenPal/Super "Toon In With Me" Tooner Zoe/ @retrozo.bsky.social! We all hope you have a wonderful Birthday, Zoe! Birthday Cheers & Sven Cheers from all of us!
President Trump says the White House is preparing to host UFC Freedom, a UFC fight on the South Lawn in celebration of America’s 250 and the president’s 80th birthday on June 14. https://fox11online.com/news/nation-world
Washington HITS Iran, then acts OFFENDED when Iran touches the leverage Washington forced it to use. The US wants Iran to absorb attacks, bury its dead, lose its leaders — and still keep the Strait of Hormuz open like nothing happened. You don’t get to light the fire and complain about the smoke.
No one chooses to be a refugee, but we can choose how we respond. @tirrcvotes.bsky.social @seiu.org & @32bjseiu.bsky.social We Don't Play!💜 #unionsforallnetwork #SolidaritySeason
Donald Trump is clear: American families’ financial struggles don’t matter to him at all. If congressional Republicans don’t want to hold him accountable and help end his reckless wars and bring down prices, they should get the hell out of the way.
Alexandre Padilha: 𝗠𝗮𝗶𝘀 𝗱𝗲 𝗺𝗲𝗶𝗼 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗵ã𝗼 𝗱𝗲 𝗯𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗲𝗶𝗿𝗼𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗿𝗮𝗺 𝗮𝗷𝘂𝗱𝗮. 𝗘 𝗼 𝗦𝗨𝗦 𝗼𝘂𝘃𝗶𝘂. 𝗗𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗶𝘀 𝗱𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗼𝘀 𝘀𝗲𝗺 𝗽𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝗻𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮 𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘀 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗻𝗼 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗹, 𝗼 𝗚𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗼 𝗟𝘂𝗹𝗮 𝗰𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘂 𝗼 𝗢𝗯𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗮𝘁ó𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝗦𝗮ú𝗱𝗲 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗶𝗹 𝗱𝗲 𝗔𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘀 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝘁𝗿ô𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘀 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮 𝗮𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗵𝗮𝗿 𝗼𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝘀 𝗱𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗻𝗮 𝘀𝗮ú𝗱𝗲 𝗱𝗮 𝗽𝗼𝗽𝘂𝗹𝗮çã𝗼. 1/3
Lina Mounzer | Essayist Translator And Senior Editor The Markaz Review: People finally understand that people in the Middle East deserve to live in sovereignty and self-determination. Israel's narrative, that everyone in the region is a terrorist who deserves whatever happens to them, has broken.
Another manic Monday? Relax, take a load off, and enjoy some new "quickies" from our Laugh-In 2025 Redoo department. It's our little home-made contribution to keeping up everyone's resistance with a little humor in these crazy times. #humor #parody #comedy #laugh #news
Play the city with Luminato Festival from June 3–28 🎭✨ From live music and dance to powerful conversations and breathtaking performances celebrating Black artists, stories, and culture across Toronto, these are four events you won’t want to miss. 🎟️ @luminatofestival #LuminatoFestival
From Berlin and Brussels to Nairobi, music and diplomacy in perfect sync. This week, #BaloziSpeaks features Ambassador of Germany Sebastian Groth 🇩🇪 🇪🇺 German Embassy Nairobi Tune in TV 47 Kenya📺on Sunday at 8PM #EUKenya50
Alice Coachman became the first Black woman from any country to win Olympic gold in 1948 after growing up training barefoot because Black athletes were denied access to many facilities. She was also the only American woman to win gold that year. She soared past every barrier. #SheShed
Upfitters!! 🚨 We want to hear YOUR hot takes 👀 White to the rear? Red and blue on the same side? Let’s hear it! 🔊 Drop your thoughts in the comments ⬇️ #StrobesNMore #Upfitter #VehicleUpfit #FleetUpfit
The dead internet theory is something that has fascinated us for a while, would like to hear what you think of it?
#MayDay #WorkersOverBillionaires #NoWorkNoSchoolNoShopping
Americans can’t afford health care, child care, or groceries, but Trump is spending $1 billion a day on a war that is making no one safer.
It’s National Pet Day So please enjoy this video of Xavier Bacerra with a puppy.
If lubricant lubricates, then glue binds. #gamedev #pcgaming #indiegame
Harry Enten: How delicious for Democrats this morning. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's HD-87 by 11 points. Look at this swing, all the way to the left. The Democrat winning it by 2 points in the special election. Democrats are able to win in Donald Trump's backyard.
Professionals mit CPMAI_ Experten für KI-Implementierung statt nur KI-Experten! P45: PM Cowboy Podcast Gast: Markus Kopko, PMP, PgMP ist ein KI in Projektmanagement Experte. Thema: Die Integration von Künstlicher Intelligenz in & mit Projektmanagement
Kennt ihr eigentlich den Star Traders Shop im Disneyland Park? Hier werden Star Wars Fans auf Ihre Kosten kommen! #Disneylandparis #magicdlp
Salutations everyone. Here are the Pokémon Gen 6 sprites. I didn't add the Megas because I think they should have their own page. (I don't own Pokémon, I just like drawing them.) #Artist #Artwork #DailyArt #pokemon #games #ink
It's still very early, but the Phillies' -25 run differential is 3rd-worst in MLB. They're getting blown out a lot. Are we looking at a potential 1979 or 2012 season? @justinklugh.bsky.social & I discussed on a NEW Hittin' Season, from @whyy.org podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
"As opposed to Keir Starmer, who is looked at... as a leftist weenie, we saw in King Charles someone that's proud of Britain..." Republican Congressman Michael Baumgartner criticises the UK's Prime Minister in response to King Charles' US Congressional address. #Newsnight
Is Trump a Genius or a Wrecker? - Professor Jiang #trump #geopolitics #gametheory Original timestamp: 00:40:52
here's Hezbollah using a FPV drone on a fiber optic cable to neutralize an invading technical vehicle bsky.app/profile/penb...
Ro Khanna pointing out that Massie got crushed after: • pushing Epstein file transparency • opposing war w Iran …is probably the clearest “follow the money” moment we’ve seen in a minute. The machine tolerates rebellion right up until it threatens power.
Love yourself a little extra today for #ValentinesDay! 💕 And don’t forget to comment on our COMSAE giveaway. #Vday #SelfLove #ILoveMe #LoveYourself #LYS
The death toll from the Israeli strike near Jabal Amel Hospital rose to 4 killed and 127 wounded, including 39 hospital staff members, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. 🧵
I've been speaking with parents in Winchester about the impact of AI chatbots. Children are writing less because AI "can do it better.” They’re spending more time indoors. They feel less confident. We must regulate AI before it's placed in the hands of children, not after the damage is done.