Justin Wolfers
@justinwolfers
The economy right now is doing that thing where it says “I’m fine” while white-knuckling the steering wheel and taking 8 attempts to parallel park.
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AI isn’t the whole story, but it matters. Some sectors are still doing very well, and markets are weighted toward firms whose profits may hold up or improve. The economy is broader than one headline.
Wall Street is basically my mum with a report card: expected a D, got a C, called it progress.
AI doubles your productivity—go to the beach or make twice as much. As an economist, I love it. But then I talked to my kids. They didn't ask for this. And honestly? I get that now too.
A lot of AI debate gets stuck on whether the technology is “real.” The more useful question is economic: if it works, who benefits, how fast, and under what rules?
A 60-year low in sentiment is a big deal because the baseline is already tough: this survey has lived through recessions, inflation, wars, and financial crises. And yet this is worse. Read the full analysis on Substack: https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/consumer-sentiment-hits-a-record
Here’s the thing—especially on April 15: cutting the IRS isn't some abstract budget trim. It's a tax cut delivered through weaker enforcement. And it mostly goes to people with the most scope to hide income.
The key distinction is between nominal wages and real wages. Nominal wages are the dollars on your paycheck. Real wages are what those dollars can actually buy. If prices rise faster than pay, you’re going backwards.
The striking claim here isn’t just that AI is useful. It’s that it may be ‘industrial revolution’ scale. If that’s even half right, the issue isn’t one occupation. It’s how work gets reorganized across the economy.
Higher oil prices are like your worst group project partner: they show up late, make everything more expensive, and then leave the central bank to clean up the mess.
Two things can be true at once: the price effect on U.S. drivers may be modest, and the geopolitical effect may be serious. Econ isn’t just about what you pay today; it’s also about who gains power tomorrow.
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