Justin Wolfers
@justinwolfers
Consumer sentiment is near a 75-year low. But increasingly, these surveys may be measuring partisanship as much as economics. In other words, they may be asking “Do you like the president?” as much as “Do you like the economy?”
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Two things can be true at once: private credit isn't identical to 2008-era shadow banking, and some of the same vulnerabilities may be creeping back. Similar enough to inspect closely.
AI isn’t the whole story, but it matters. Some sectors are still doing very well, and markets are weighted toward firms whose profits may hold up or improve. The economy is broader than one headline.
AI is booming. The broader economy, not so much. That matters because workers and small businesses don’t all live inside one tech boom.
Opportunity cost is Econ 101 with real stakes: the cost of a choice is not just dollars spent, but what you gave up. For war, that means not only destruction, but all the prosperity that never gets a chance to exist.
The striking claim here isn’t just that AI is useful. It’s that it may be ‘industrial revolution’ scale. If that’s even half right, the issue isn’t one occupation. It’s how work gets reorganized across the economy.
“He failed to understand the interconnectedness of the world economy.” That was true in the trade war, and it’s true now.
Courts saying “go to Congress” is not courts banning tariffs. It’s courts saying the Constitution still exists. That matters for markets too: the rule of law lowers uncertainty; arbitrary power raises it.
Bottom line: the issue isn't only what Iran can do. It's that everyone now knows what Iran can do. Revealed vulnerability changes bargaining power.
A gas tax holiday talks about 18.4¢ while ignoring the $1.50 problem. That's politics, not policy. And half of it likely goes straight to oil company profits. Congress knows this. Some just hope you don't.
A terrific sign for business confidence is when "not wiping civilizations off the map" counts as good news. Low bar. Somehow still doing limbo under it.
That’s good news. Now if we could only get the Crook in Chief to put the sanctions back on. But on the other hand…
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Fact Check: Posts Saying Your Favorite Celeb Filed a $50 Million Defamation Lawsuit Against A News Host for On-Air Defamation Are NOT Real -- Spam From Vietnam #CheckTok #FactCheck #PopeLeoXIV #DefamationLawsuit #VietnamSpam #CelebrityHoax leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2...
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