Justin Wolfers
@justinwolfers
Bottom line: the issue isn't only what Iran can do. It's that everyone now knows what Iran can do. Revealed vulnerability changes bargaining power.
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More from Justin Wolfers
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Here’s the thing—especially on April 15: cutting the IRS isn't some abstract budget trim. It's a tax cut delivered through weaker enforcement. And it mostly goes to people with the...
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Sen. Warren: "Did Donald Trump lose the 2020 election?" Handsome Kevin: "ummm... errr... " His response raises real questions about whether Warsh is independent of the President a...
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"You can't say the cost of a puppy is $200 because that was the adoption fee." The Pentagon's $25B price tag does exactly that — it ignores veterans' care, disability payments, and...
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Optimism is not a policy tool. If there’s no clear timeline for resolution, energy markets will price in uncertainty. And uncertainty is costly because firms can’t plan and househo...
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AI isn’t the whole story, but it matters. Some sectors are still doing very well, and markets are weighted toward firms whose profits may hold up or improve. The economy is broader than one headline.
Why oil? Because worsening war news tends to threaten energy supply. That pushes oil prices up. So rising oil isn’t just about petrol; it’s a signal about geopolitical risk hitting the global economy.
A 60-year low in sentiment is a big deal because the baseline is already tough: this survey has lived through recessions, inflation, wars, and financial crises. And yet this is worse. Read the full analysis on Substack: https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/consumer-sentiment-hits-a-record
"Stocks just had a great month because they previously had a terrible month." That’s not a boom; that’s a rebound from a scare.
Some simple economics of the Met Gala: $42 million raised sounds enormous. It is. But economics is about compared with what? If the Met Gala creates far more value for fashion brands than for the museum, then the ticket price is probably too low.
"If what you want is rate cuts, here's the thing you don't do. You don't go and bomb a country in the Middle East upsetting global energy markets and pushing prices up across the board."
A gas tax holiday talks about 18.4¢ while ignoring the $1.50 problem. That's politics, not policy. And half of it likely goes straight to oil company profits. Congress knows this. Some just hope you don't.
Private credit now wants retail money: because apparently the lesson from finance was, 'What if we made shadow banking available in family size?'
A lot of AI debate gets stuck on whether the technology is “real.” The more useful question is economic: if it works, who benefits, how fast, and under what rules?
This isn’t just about who gets a tax cut. It’s about who bears the long-run burden. Higher prices for basics plus temporary relief is a rotten deal for working households.
Speaker Johnson and the majority should join us to put an end to the Administration’s prolonged war in Iran. “We’ll see” how much time it will take to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is not the answer nearly 80 days into this unauthorized conflict...
Rubio: "Cuba is not going to be able to wait us out or buy time. As I said in the context of Iran, the president's preference is always a negotiated agreement that's peaceful. With Cuba, the likelihood of that happening is not high."
We have two episodes of Sharing with Shellshock this week! First, we'll be having a discussion on Movies Based on Video Games! Joining me are @8bitjosh.com, @korshalvalent.bsky.social, @benamation.bsky.social, and @redb3ard.bsky.social! This Friday at 8PM Eastern!
If someone keeps fathering children but never sticking around, we have a word for that and it's not flattering. Why do we use a different word when they do it with companies? @skriptble.me fallthrough.fm/65 #StartupCulture #Founders
Nikola Jokic on Denver Nuggets coach David Adelman: “It’s not his fault that we could not rebound. It’s not his fault we could not catch the ball very well. There is nothing to blame for David Adelman. It was all us.”
Working on an interior scene, as it's part of the first major cutscene. Part of it calls for the player character to look into a mirror, which meant I had to figure out How To 2D Mirror. Very happy with the result though! #indiegames #indiedev #gamedev
The #primary is June 9. The #Republican candidates for governor are: Jonathan Bush, Bobby Charles, David Jones, Garrett Mason, Owen McCarthy, Ben Midgley and Robert Wessels. James Libby appears on the #ballot but has withdrawn. Here's why they're running. Keep watching at the post below.
He's adorable 🥰. Ok Yankees loosing again 2-0 9th haven't been able to score since screwing up to the Mets last week, amazing they'll win 15 of16 then lose 6 straight without scoring more than 1 run even judge 10 games without a hr or RBI 14ks 6 DBs when judge don't hit yanks lose good night
Chess Tournament for schools in Wolverhampton West ♟️ More content from this amazing event coming soon ⏳
Big news about Plan A, a non-hormonal, reversible, and long-acting contraceptive: NEXT Life Sciences has just completed a successful device trial and has added regulatory heavyweights to the team. See: www.planaformen.com/news #MaleContraception #PlanA #Innovation #BirthControl #FamilyPlanning
Why is Doug Ford so hellbent on making the streets in front of our kids’ schools less safe?
Pete Hegseth is before Congress today for the first time since Trump launched this dangerous war in Iran. Hegseth can recite talking points for Fox News, but I've sat in classified briefings with him. He is in over his head. Our servicemembers deserve better. He needs to go.
Punch Brothers perform "New Bike" from their upcoming album, 'The Unsung Adventures of Punch Brothers,' in Nashville in this video by Josh Goleman. The album—the band's first of all instrumental tunes—is due July 24. Watch the video and pre-order the album at punchbrothers.lnk.to/unsungadvent...
In 1977, the retail world was caught in a clunky transition. While we think of "swiping" as a 1980s phenomenon, the groundwork for the electronic credit card era was laid right in the middle of the '70s.
I promise this 800mg Ibuprofen will fix that gunshot wound 🫡 On the front lines, sometimes humor is the only way injured soldiers cope with the atrocities of war. #milsim #combatmedic #indiegame
Good morning all you amazing critters and welcome to a terrific Tuesday, let's make it an awesome 🌮🌮🌮🌮 Tuesday.
I often get asked why I don't take corporate contributions. It's because I work for Californians, not special interests. I'm unfraid to stand up to anyone to do what's best for California families.
Los Angeles needs 450k units of housing today. I’m going to Congress to finally fully fund Section 8 and get people housed. Make it federal policy for LA to upzone to multi-family home zones everywhere and to modernize permitting. Solve housing and we solve affordability, jobs and homelessness.
Ahora si se me puso empoderada la elfa / Now the elf has really gotten a bit too full of herself #Metaphor
“Our soldiers are in Israel right now to defend the Israelis. Do the Israelis pay for our military? Are they the ones shelling out a trillion dollars a year for our military? NO!” #iran #war #trump
Through grassroots solidarity, communities like Virginia Nazareno's, championed farmer-led agroecology as resistance in the Philippines, cultivating the alternatives long denied by corporate agriculture and indifferent governments. #ClimateJustice #COP30 #Farmers
“I fell for the lies”: Rich Logis, founder of @leavingmaga.org, joins The Weeknight as scrutiny grows over Trump’s ethics and spending priorities.
CBS News is shutting down its storied radio service as part of a new round of layoffs. Some of CBS News Radio's most famous moments included Edward R. Murrow's World War II broadcasts from Europe and FDR's historic fireside chats, which ran during the Great Depression.
📍 May Day 2026 in Austin, TX Once workers realize our power, there’s no stopping us! #WorkersOverBillionaires
If that's what I think it means, we agree 100%. Our brain uses the sensors so-called "senses" (hearing, touching, smelling, tasting, seeing) to perceive and capture, then process and elaborate creatively: computational power can't do that, since it needs banks of data previously stored by us.
Mahmut Tanal: "Burada olabilecek herhangi bir eylem nedeniyle ölüm, yaralama olursa bunun bir numaralı sorumlusu İçişleri Bakanıdır, 200 polisin gözetiminde burada mafya bozuntuları taşla sopayla genel merkezimize saldırıyorsa biz burada meşru müdafaa konumundayız"
Friday night, rank-and-file union members and leaders came together to launch Labor for Claire. This is the movement that raised me — and together, we're going to win.
Film you've watched more than six times with a gif. (deeper cut. Let me know if you know)
🧵 Just so, I had a look at Trump's current timeline on Truth Social. His increasingly unhinged posts now squeeze between ads for 'snore stop' & 'wallet defender'. Who did this? 😁 P.S. The adverts make this platform entirely unreadable and that's before you look at the content...
Should advocates abandon universal rights language in favour of arguments rooted in local traditions and anti-colonial sentiment? Tune in to this week's episode of UCL Uncovering Politics, where we hear from Phillip Ayoub and Adam Harris, both professors in our department: tinyurl.com/2hbv6zm7
Fantasy romance recs with strong FMCs, spice, and full feminine-rage revenge energy are my entire personality right now. What should I read next?
Live rosin meets the viral #dubaichocolate making one hot mess of a kitchen sesh. I tempered the chocolate so that snap is 100% real. Watch me infuse live Saturdays at 1:20pm PT on YouTube. #chocolatier #milligramsmatter #culinaryscience
This is a cover-up that goes all the way to the top of government. Soon, Pam Bondi will have to explain why half of the Epstein files have yet to be released and why she continues to delay justice for survivors.
How I got into art, how you can get into art #art #artist #museum #learning #advice
Q: Was fraud found or lower standards used to verify the Forever Canada petition than others? A: No. Elections Alberta’s verification process is robust and standardized, applied to all petitions unless there are indications of fraud found. Any suggestions to the contrary are disinformation.
Reporting in-house costs in your ERC project? In this ERC Classes episode, we explain how to report on internally invoiced goods & services: ✔ Unit cost calculations ✔ Audit-ready documentation Full video 👉 www.youtube.com/watch?v=szej... #EUfunding #FrontierResearch @ercgrantees.bsky.social
Joust Plataformas: Handheld Electronic LCD Año: 1998 Géneros: Arcade Desarrollador: Tiger Electronics Publicador: Tiger Electronics Resumen: A port for Handheld Devices. #Joust #HandheldElectronicLCD #Arcade